Modi’s Pivotal Two-Nation Visit: A New Chapter in India’s Foreign Policy
As Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarked on a significant two-nation visit, commencing with the 6th BIMSTEC Summit in Bangkok, India’s foreign policy in South Asia entered a new phase of strategic recalibration. This visit marked Modi’s third trip to Thailand and the first physical meeting of BIMSTEC leaders since 2018, underscoring India’s commitment to regional stability, security, and economic cooperation.
The summit occurred at a critical juncture, as India grapples with immense challenges, including the collapse of SAARC due to strained bilateral relations and China’s expanding influence in the region through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). With China enhancing its economic and strategic presence in countries like Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and the Maldives, and trade with South Asia exceeding $190 billion in 2023, India finds itself in fierce competition for influence.
Bangladesh: Strengthening Historical Bonds
India’s deep ties with Bangladesh are rooted in a shared history, particularly the 1971 liberation war, fostering an emotional connection that has historically benefited both nations. At the BIMSTEC meet, Modi reaffirmed India’s support for a democratic, stable, and inclusive Bangladesh. He emphasized a people-centric approach, highlighting the long-standing cooperation that has characterized the relationship.
However, younger Bangladeshis are increasingly distancing themselves from this historical attachment, and anti-India rhetoric is gaining traction in certain political circles. Despite being Bangladesh’s second-largest trading partner, bilateral trade has declined by 5% due to Bangladesh’s foreign currency shortages and economic challenges. With trade standing at $14 billion annually, this decline poses a threat to the exchanges that have traditionally bolstered the relationship. To counter this growing drift, India should expand cultural diplomacy, deepen educational collaborations, and enhance infrastructure partnerships.
Myanmar and Thailand: Balancing Engagement
Myanmar’s 2021 military coup has destabilized key infrastructure projects, such as the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project and the India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway, exacerbating security concerns along India’s border. Despite these challenges, bilateral trade has remained steady at $1.74 billion, driven by agricultural and energy exchanges. However, disruptions in trade routes due to border conflicts necessitate a recalibrated approach. India’s agricultural sector relies heavily on imports from Myanmar, particularly toor daal, making smooth trade relations vital.
Despite international criticism over Myanmar’s human rights violations, India’s presence in agriculture and energy remains essential. Engaging local businesses while managing political sensitivities is key to maintaining India’s strategic interests. Additionally, the influx of around 100,000 refugees from Myanmar adds complexity to India’s relationship with its neighbor.
In Thailand, a crucial gateway to ASEAN, China’s growing economic influence through the BRI is evident, particularly in the transport and energy sectors. To counterbalance China’s expanding footprint, India must position itself as a more reliable economic partner. By emphasizing democratic values, promoting sustainable investments, and fostering collaborative growth, India can retain relevance and strengthen its presence in this vital region.
The Maldives and Sri Lanka: Navigating Volatility
The Maldives has historically shifted between India and China in its geopolitical alignments. Recent trends have favored China, but India’s strategic outreach has restored strong bilateral ties. India’s infrastructure projects, defense cooperation, and development aid have reinforced its influence. However, China-backed projects continue to challenge India’s position. Continued engagement in climate change mitigation, security partnerships, and economic cooperation will be vital for India’s enduring influence.
Sri Lanka’s economic collapse posed a significant challenge, but India responded with $4 billion in credit lines, grants, and stabilization measures, positioning itself as a crucial economic partner. However, China’s investments in Sri Lanka, such as the Hambantota Port and Colombo Port City, remain a long-term strategic concern. Following the summit in Thailand, Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake welcomed Modi with a 19-gun salute, and the two nations signed a five-year defense cooperation agreement focused on military training and information sharing. India’s focus on trade partnerships, regional connectivity, and investment-driven growth will be key to maintaining influence in Sri Lanka.
Nepal: Shifting Geopolitical Balance
Historically, Nepal has been within India’s sphere of influence, but it is increasingly engaging with China. While India remains Nepal’s largest source of foreign direct investment (FDI), China’s rising investments in energy and infrastructure pose economic and strategic challenges. Nepal’s debt to China has increased significantly, raising concerns about financial dependency. Chinese-backed projects in roads and hydropower are altering Nepal’s economic landscape.
India must counter this by investing in Nepal’s hydropower sector, improving cross-border transport connectivity, and ensuring that Nepal views India as a stable, long-term partner. Strengthening people-to-people ties through scholarships, cultural initiatives, and tourism will reinforce India’s position. Expediting projects like the India-Nepal railway and energy trade agreements will help deepen economic integration.
Pakistan and the Future of SAARC
The enduring tensions between India and Pakistan have rendered SAARC dysfunctional, with decades of hostility preventing meaningful regional integration. Reopening the Wagah border for trade and fostering economic interdependence could pave the way for gradual normalization. While political mistrust remains, economic pragmatism could bring peace.
India must not be held hostage by a few malicious actors; people-to-people contact must continue across borders to overcome divisiveness. India’s deep-rooted historical, cultural, and social connections with its neighbors provide a unique advantage over China. By emphasizing this affinity, India can position itself as a natural leader in the region, ensuring it remains the preferred partner in South Asia’s competitive landscape.
Conclusion
Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Thailand and the BIMSTEC Summit marks a significant step in India’s foreign policy, reflecting a commitment to regional stability and cooperation. As India navigates the complexities of its relationships with neighboring countries, it must adapt to the shifting geopolitical landscape while reinforcing its historical ties and strategic interests. The path forward will require a delicate balance of diplomacy, economic engagement, and cultural outreach to ensure India remains a pivotal player in South Asia.